What's at stake over the last six games?

by Site Admin

Starting on Saturday, it will be Draft Week here on JetsFix. We'll be focusing on college football and looking at some of the top prospects, storylines and matchups all week, although we'll of course keep you updated with any important Jets-based developments too.

Until then, we'll be focusing on the season so far and what to expect after the bye week. We start today by summarizing some of the things still to play for over the second half of the year.

Playoff positioning

Some Jets fans get offended by the very notion of these Jets having any hope of getting to the postseason so let's frame this in terms of how many losses they need to ensure they are mathematically eliminated.

Seattle made the postseason at 7-9 in 2010 but 3-3 over the last six games won't be enough for these Jets as New England already has seven wins and it certainly wouldn't get you in as a wild card.

Getting in at 8-8 is highly unlikely to happen, although the 1991 Jets managed it. Then again, the 2015 Jets missed out at 10-6 and the 2008 Patriots missed out at 11-5.

It's even possible the Jets could win all their remaining games and still miss the postseason at 10-6 but it seems unlikely looking at the consistency of the AFC teams who have the potential to win that many games.

Realistically, one or two more losses will eliminate them, but they might not be officially removed from the "in the hunt" list for 3-4 more weeks no matter what happens.

Draft positioning

It's possible the team will shift focus now and if, as expected, they lose most of their remaining games, they should end up with a high pick. However, they basically did that last year and still won two of their last four.

The Jets would pick 11th based on current standings if the season were to end today. If they lost all of their remaining games, they'd end up 4-12 and probably end up picking somewhere in the 3rd-to-7th pick range.

A couple more wins would make a big difference. When they went 6-10 in 2012, the Jets picked 9th in the draft. (They also picked 13th, but that was with the pick acquired in the Darrelle Revis trade).

Schedule positioning

If the Jets can lock up last place, they'll face the last place team in the AFC South and AFC West next year. However, if the Bills and Dolphins continue to fall apart the Jets could in theory end up in second place.

This could be the difference between two bad teams and two good teams on next year's schedule. However, with teams like Denver, Oakland, Houston and Indianapolis struggling unexpectedly and perhaps primed to bounce back next year, this might not end up benefiting the Jets too much.

(Don't worry, we play the Browns again next year no matter what.)

Individual milestones

Some players have a chance to reach some milestones over the remaining six games, including...

  • Demario Davis needs 34 tackles - fewer than six per game - to set a career mark for total tackles. He also has a shot at the NFL lead as he currently sits in third place;
  • Despite missing time at the start of the year, Rontez Miles is just two off the NFL lead in terms of special teams solo tackles;
  • Josh McCown needs just 270 passing yards to make this a career year in terms of passing yardage;
  • Robby Anderson needs to average 72 yards per game to post a thousand-yard season. He's averaging 70 per game over his last five so this seems within reach; and
  • Christian Hackenberg needs one passing yard to set a career-best mark.

Financial incentives

Some players have financial incentives to play for. Here are the main ones we're aware of...

  • Josh McCown has already earned $1.25 million on top of his $6 million base salary. He'll continue to earn $125K for every game in which he takes over 50 percent of the snaps. He's also virtually played enough snaps to entitle him to postseason incentives. In the unlikely event the Jets made the playoffs, he'd earn another $2 million but the other $3 million of potential incentives would require the Jets to reach and then win the Super Bowl;
  • Morris Claiborne will continue to earn a $31,250 bonus every time he is active for a game, so he's already missed out on one of these. This constitutes $500K of his $5 million contract. The cap hit this year is based on seven games because that's what he played in 2016 but he's already received nine of these bonuses. The extra cap hit will be accounted for in 2018; and
  • As third-to-seventh round picks in 2015 that are still on their rookie contracts, Lorenzo Mauldin and Bryce Petty each had a chance to earn playing time escalators this year that would increase their 2018 salary by approximately $1 million. Since neither of them have played, it's too late for either of them to make up the ground now. Mauldin would have needed to play about 500 snaps to earn it.

Jobs for next year

Coaches, players and front office staff are all playing for their jobs. Young players can establish themselves as part of the team's plans going forward, while older players will want to play well enough to ensure the team still wants to retain them and won't look to cut their pay or release them outright.

This basically applies to everyone but there are a few players whose future seems essentially decided that will either be playing out the string or cast aside for younger alternatives.

Will Chad Hansen, ArDarius Stewart and Elijah McGuire see more time on offense? Will we ever see Hackenberg, Obum Gwachum or Derrick Jones? Has Muhammad Wilkerson's resurgence ensured he'll be back next year? Will the Jets look to lock up pending free agents like Davis, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Claiborne, McCown and Kony Ealy? Will anyone (Mauldin, perhaps?) be activated off injured reserve?

Historical achievements

There's a few streaks of historical anomalies the Jets will be looking to avoid...

  • Will the Jets ever manage to score a defensive touchdown? The last one was by Antonio Allen in the PushGate Bowl in October 2013;
  • Will they send any players to the Pro Bowl? There's no obvious candidates but the Jets have sent at least one player in every year since 2007; and
  • Can the Jets win four of their last six to avoid having their second consecutive losing season for the first time since the Rich Kotite era?

Miscellaneous

Two final things to play for:

  • If the Jets win one more game, Bart Scott gets Chris Canty's Bentley as a result of a bet the pair made before the season. If they were to lose out, Canty gets Scott's Ferrari.
  • Wilkerson effectively guaranteed the Jets would win more games in 2017 than in 2016, so they need to win two more to achieve that. Strictly speaking, Wilkerson's actual guarantee was that the Jets would "do more positive things" this year, which they've probably already achieved no matter how the rest of the season plays out. However, he did follow that up by saying "We'll have more wins that last year. That's a fact."

Did we miss anything? What else is there to play for in the last month and a half?