What kind of production can we expect from Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis in their rookie seasons?

We recently looked at what kind of production we can expect from Malachi Corley in his rookie season. Let's now repeat the exercise for the two rookie running backs signed by the Jets.

Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis look set to compete for time in the rotation with 2023 draft pick Israel Abanikanda. Therefore, a good starting point would be to establish how many reps are likely to be available if Breece Hall remains healthy.

Hall's usage levels were among the highest in the NFL last year. Although he was only 14th in the NFL in carries, he was first in targets in the passing game. That means he was fifth overall in terms of plays where they gave him the ball, or tried to.

Can we expect a similar workload for Hall in 2024? Let's first consider factors which might lead to his workload increasing.

The Jets offense didn't sustain drives as well last year so there may be more touches to go around. Hopefully there will also be fewer games where they have to abandon the running game because they're having no success, or losing the game. In fact, they may have more games where they're leading and wanting to run the ball to keep the clock moving. Also, Hall's impact in the passing game got better as the season went along, so they may wish to build on that.

Now let's think about factors which might lead to Hall being used less in 2024:

First, the Jets have playoff aspirations, so they should be keen to keep Hall fresh late into the season rather than optimizing his production during the regular season. They also will hope to have some comfortable wins where they can rest him down the stretch. Another factor could be that if the quality of the play from the backups is better than last year, the coaches will be compelled to use them more.

Finally, perhaps they will use him less in short yardage and goal line situations. Hall averaged just 1.4 yards per carry inside the 10-yard line last year and on 14 carries with three or less yards to go on third or fourth down, he generated just seven first downs.

You would also hope that the running game is more effective, so the Jets aren't forced to pass as much - and that the passing game is more multi-faceted, so they don't pass to Hall as often when they do throw. These factors would likely influence Hall's run/pass splits rather than his total usage.

If we look back at last year and non-Hall running back touches, there were only 148 carries or targets to go around. The above reasoning about Hall's playing time strongly suggests there should be more overall snaps and more run snaps available this time, and that the Jets could have good reason to limit Hall's usage.

Let's conservatively say that the Jets would have 5 percent more offensive snaps this year and that they would run the ball 5 percent more, while reducing Hall's conventional carry count by 5 percent and his target percentage by 5 percent. And let's give half of those short yardage carries away. All seem like reasonable estimates and this would free up another 60-80 potential touches for non-Hall backs.

So, let's say that there would be 225 of non-Hall touches to go around. Then it just comes down to how the competition would play out. If Abanikanda and the rookies all shared out these touches equally, that would be 75 each, which is considerably more than the 22 carries and 11 targets Abanikanda had last year.

Ultimately, though, you might expect the third and fourth running back not to play much, so maybe they would have a similar workload to Abanikanda last year. That would mean that whoever won the number two role could have a more significant role than Dalvin Cook (67 carries and 20 targets) in 2023.

If we get a clear winner from this trio, 500 yards from scrimmage would not be out of the question, as long as they could average four yards per carry and add some pass game production. Of course, that may not be either of the rookies, as Abanikanda will be looking to make the kind of jump Bilal Powell did in from year one (1.6 yards per carry) to year two (577 yards from scrimmage).

Of course, if Hall gets hurt, this would free up a lot of extra touches, although the Jets might also respond to that by passing a lot more. Ultimately, we could see a situation where everyone gets a chance and those who perform the best initially get more opportunities.