What chance do the UDFAs have of making the Jets roster?

Coming up this week, we'll begin our in-depth look at each of the Jets' undrafted free agent signings from a couple of weeks ago.

The Jets initially announced that they had signed eight undrafted free agents, then added another two following rookie camp. They've subsequently added another when they claimed KD Cannon on waivers following his premature exit from from the San Francisco 49ers.

Let's recap each of the last five UDFA classes and the contributions generated from each one. We'll then break down numerically how many of those players contributed and to what degree to get some idea of what to expect from this year's group.

Please note that for the purposes of the data analysis we will be limiting ourselves to the initially announced set of unrestricted free agency signings. Players added after having attended mini-camp on a tryout basis are not included in the analysis, so we are essentially making a comparison to the first eight names announced rather than to Cannon or the two linemen signed after camp.

Of course, such players can still end up contributing. For example, Matt Simms ended up seeing action on the main roster a year after initially having been brought in on a tryout basis. Also, Bryson Keeton and Romar Morris are back for a second camp after having been tryout signings last season.

The 2012 class

2012 was highlighted by one of the best undrafted free agents in Jets history, nose tackle Damon Harrison although the Jets' official site did controversially leave him out of their top three last week.

Also in that class, which comprised 10 players, were Donnie Fletcher and Marcus Dowtin. Both made it onto the active roster for a few games and saw action on special teams. Dowtin played just two defensive snaps and Fletcher didn't play any.

The 2013 class

There was no Damon Harrison in the 2013 class, but Rontez Miles was a nice pick-up who is still on the active roster today. While Miles is best known as a special teams captain, he's also started five games at safety and had 57 tackles last season.

In addition to Miles, four other players from that year's UDFA crop saw playing time on the main roster - Chris Pantale, Dalton Freeman, Ryan Spadola and Troy Davis. Pantale just played on special teams and Spadola and Davis combined to just play 41 snaps. However, Freeman would play 111 snaps including a start in the season finale in his second season.

While these contributions were mostly insignificant - and even Miles didn't really do much on defense until the second half of the 2015 season - five players making the roster seems quite good. However, this was the biggest group of the last five years, comprising 15 players, so that perhaps makes it less impressive.

The 2014 class

The real gem of the 2014 group has been defensive lineman Kerry Hyder. However, the Jets unfortunately let Hyder go and the Lions were the beneficiaries as he broke out with an eight-sack campaign last season.

Other than that, the only positive from the eight undrafted free agents signed in 2014 has been Brent Qvale. Qvale has been a valuable reserve, holding his own in a couple of spot starts. and figures to once again compete for playing time this season.

None of the rest of this group were even so much as resigned to a futures deal after the season, but the Jets had, of course, drafted 12 players, so they had plenty of rookies in the system already.

The 2015 class

Three of the eight undrafted pick-ups in 2015 saw time on the active roster in 2015 or 2016 and a fourth, Deion Barnes, was brought back with the expectation of a role in his second season after spending the year on the practice squad.

Ultimately, though, only Julian Howsare remains on the roster entering 2017 and the contributions made by Taiwan Jones and Wes Saxton were not particularly significant.

The 2016 class

Another bigger class (13 players) in 2016 yielded some immediate results. In fact, three of the players - Robby Anderson, Doug Middleton and Jalin Marshall - combined to score five touchdowns. Lawrence Thomas was also making some contributions on the defensive line and special teams before he got hurt.

Three more players - Ross Martin, Claude Pelon and Jason Vander Laan - currently remain on the roster with a shot at making the team in 2017.

Analysis of the probabilities for success

As noted, we are just looking at the last five years and the initial undrafted free agent signings to generate this data. We'll consider whether a player returned for a second season, saw playing time on the main roster, made significant contributions or played at a starter level.

Obviously those last two are, to some degree, subjective. To give you an idea of where we drew the line, we decided to treat Middleton's late season rotational play and special teams touchdown as significant but Freeman's one spot start as not significant. Also, we are projecting to some extent by saying that Anderson showed he can produce at a starter level, but Miles, despite his five starts, is not treated as a starter because he was only ever in that role due to injuries.

Here's how the numbers break down.

As you can see, recent undrafted rookies have a better than one-in-four chance of making it onto the Jets active roster at some point and about a one-in-three chance of at least getting to return to the team the following season. In fact, in the Mike Maccagnan era, that probability has been better than 50:50.

While the chances of such players making any significant contributions are much more remote, they're not so remote that we should write off all of these players before they've had a chance.

Of course, the opportunities for your undrafted free agents should depend on the strength of your roster and the level of success will also dovetail with your draft class. After all, if over half of your unrestricted free agents are making contributions but hardly any of your drafted rookies are, then something is wrong.

The challenge for the front office will be to identify those with the most potential and find a role for them which, if the Jets' roster is as talent deficient as many experts suggest, shouldn't be too difficult. However, failure to retain and develop the right players could lead to the next Hyder slipping through the cracks.

Our challenge is a different one. We'll be looking at each player in depth over the next few weeks and trying to determine what they bring to the table and how they might fit into the Jets' plans.

If you didn't respond to our poll yet, please do so, as this will help us to determine which of the undrafted free agents you're most interested in us reviewing.