How good does Bill Belichick think the 2017 Jets will be?
All this "the Jets have the worst roster ever" talk is getting a little tiresome. Maybe it's accurate, but there must be something they bring to the table.
Jets-bashing is en vogue at the moment in both local and national media circles, so it's hard to find anyone with something positive to say about them. Of course, Jets players and coaches constantly bring up reasons for optimism and excitement, but a lot of that will be met with skepticism (and justifiably so, in many cases).
Are other teams writing the Jets off though? In search of an unbiased assessment of what the team offers, it would be interesting to know what an opposing coach like Bill Belichick would have to say.
Belichick hasn't commented on the Jets recently, but if you go back six months, he gave an even-handed assessment of what last year's team brought to the table.
So, if we parse these comments and then factor in what's changed since the end of the season, we can perhaps formulate a less narrative-driven evaluation of where the current team stands.
Let's break down Belichick's comments into bite-sized chunks:
The Jets are, as we know from our games against them last year, very good defensively, great front four, great group of defensive lineman, very experienced in the secondary and at linebacker with [David] Harris.
All these same pieces are essentially still in place, apart from the "experienced in the secondary" aspect. At safety in particular, they've lost Marcus Gilchrist, the quarterback of the secondary, and will now have to rely on two rookies back there.
However, the good news is that Jamal Adams seems to be a quick learner based on reports of how he's faring so far in practice. With both Adams and Maye being players who have good instincts, then perhaps that's an adequate replacement for some experienced players that still seemed prone to blowing coverages.
At cornerback, the Jets clearly lost some experience when Darrelle Revis was released, but in Morris Claiborne, Buster Skrine and Marcus Williams, they have three guys who've started 82 games between them over the past three seasons, so they're not necessarily inexperienced, at least when compared to last year's group.
The other issue with Belichick's comments is that he was praising the Jets based on how tough they had played New England in 2015. However, the hope is that for players like Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson their 2017 season will have more in common with how they played in 2015 than how they played in 2016 so the comment could still ring true for the 2017 outfit.
Coach [Todd] Bowles runs a varied scheme where you can get anywhere from a three-man rush to everybody blitzing pretty much on any play from first-down, second-down, third-down, red-area, two-minute, all of those situations, so there's a lot to defend, a lot of good players.
Bowles, his system and the challenges it presents to a team like New England are obviously still in place. In fact, with some of the recent personnel changes perhaps Bowles will have a group more suited to running the system exactly as he always intended to, rather than tweaking it to suit his players.
However many "good players" there were may have been affected by players exiting. However, it's really only Revis and the safeties who are gone.
Of course, that doesn't account for once-good players who have regressed (or will do so in 2017). Again, Richardson and Wilkerson's contributions will be critical here, but - regardless of how the rookies perform - does the secondary have adequate depth to overcome any injuries?
Offensively Coach [Chan] Gailey does a great job with the balance in his offensive system, running game, passing game.
Here's a major change. With Gailey gone, the new offensive system is a completely unknown quantity. Maybe John Morton will also display good balance. Everything he's said about his values and intentions so far would suggest that could be the case.
The backs have been very productive for them, both [Bilal] Powell and [Matt] Forte.
Here's something that shouldn't change. In fact, Forté made comments this week suggesting that Gailey didn't make optimal use of Powell and himself, underlining what many fans felt.
The receivers have been very productive. [Ryan] Fitzpatrick is averaging 26 points-per-game the past three weeks, so I think we all know what he's capable of. We've seen him many times.
The passing game is expected to take even more of a nose-dive this year, but perhaps that's not inevitable. As Belichick says, the receivers were productive, including the likes of Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson who should get even more opportunities to produce this year.
Brandon Marshall is gone, but Eric Decker should be back to hopefully replace some of that production. Even though Marshall probably deserves a lot of the credit for Decker's 2015 production, Decker was the number one here in 2014 and produced quite well.
Belichick's familiarity with Fitzpatrick is notable because he's hardly ever seen Josh McCown. Back in 2004 with Arizona, a young McCown struggled in a 23-12 loss to Belichick's Patriots. That's actually the only time he's ever thrown a pass against one of Belichick's teams though.
[They're] good in the kicking game. [Josh] Martin's done a real good job for them covering kicks so we'll see how their return situation goes here with their signing yesterday.
Any optimism around the special teams would have to be based on the fact that surely it couldn't be any worse. Then again, we said the same things last year, when it seemed like the Jets had dramatically improved their special teams personnel.
Ultimately, much of the special teams struggles from last year have been attributed to the disruption caused by all the injuries. They still don't appear to have an obvious candidate to handle return duties, though.
While Belichick may have viewed the Jets as good in the kicking game, Nick Folk missed six field goals against the Patriots while with the Jets. His potential replacement Chandler Catanzaro was reportedly struggling last week at practice, though.
We have to be ready for that as well. We know it'll be tough down there, a hostile environment.
As it turns out the Jets did play New England tough in the game after Belichick made these comments, losing a game they probably should have won by five points. New England destroyed them by 38 later in the year though.
How hostile the environment will be at Jets home games this year remains to be seen, as half the fanbase seems resigned to a losing year and some even seem to favor a tanking approach. If there is any hostility, it might be directed towards the team, coaching staff and front office rather than the opposition.
Then again, maybe Belichick was talking about the Jets' locker room!
Conclusions
It's ultimately disingenuous of us to try to use Belichick's comments to formulate a more favorable outlook for next year's Jets.
There's always a purpose to such comments that goes beyond an honest assessment of an upcoming opponent. Belichick wants to demonstrate he isn't overlooking the opposition, doesn't want to give them any bulletin board material and, in some cases, may even have been laying the groundwork for an offseason free agency approach. There might even be some sarcasm, backhanded compliments and deliberate damning with faint praise in there if you read between the lines.
Nevertheless, there is some unbiased truth to what he's saying. Despite the prevailing narrative that almost every single aspect this team is the worst in the league, the team does still have some things it does well.
The challenge for the coaching staff is one which they failed miserably at last year. They need to ride those things they do well, mitigate their weaknesses and maximise contributions from their players that are currently unknown quantities around the league.
If they can't do that, the Jets will never manage to earn legitimate respect from anyone. Let's hope much of what Belichick was saying last year remains true. If it is, then the Jets will be more competitive than most experts are expecting.