DraftFix - The Golden Boy comes unstuck
The Jets won this week, so there's no "It could be worse". Instead, we're going to reward ourselves with a look at something related to next April's draft.
We couldn't wait too long before we checked in on the player currently projected as the top quarterback prospect in the 2018 draft. The media has been fawning over USC's Sam Darnold with some expressing concern that the Jets might have taken themselves out of the running for him by having won a few games to move out of last place.
However, is Darnold worthy of the hype? Last weekend's game with Washington State gave us a golden opportunity to weigh him up against a lesser prospect in Luke Falk.
The outcome was a 30-27 upset win for Falk's Cougars, with Darnold struggling throughout and coming up short in crunch time.
Unless you've been hiding under a rock, you're probably aware of Darnold, who brings prototypical size, arm strength and mobility and comes from a system that has produced many NFL quarterbacks (although recently several have underperformed expectations). His performance in 2016 seems to have sold many on him being the closest thing to a "sure thing" prospect at the quarterback position for some time, but his detractors have suggested he needs to tighten up his delivery and work on his ball security.
Falk, however, is less well known. Some are suspicious of his production because he plays in an Air Raid offense, but he has poise and is advanced in terms of his ability to scan the field and progress through reads, suggesting he could thrive in an NFL-style system too. While he doesn't possess an elite arm, he's adept at making quick decisions and getting the ball out on time. These are essential attributes for the modern NFL, which not all prospects possess.
Falk is one of a number of college quarterbacks that idolizes Tom Brady and tries to emulate him in terms of on-field play and off-field preparation. In the season opener, he picked apart Montana State by completing all 20 of his passes in the first half, primarily by dumping the ball off to the open man. However, a few weeks later, against a tougher opponent in Boise State he played poorly and was knocked out of the game due to a head injury. The Cougars eventually won in overtime with him on the sideline.
Despite his reputation as a player who'll take what the defense gives him, Falk made perhaps the most impressive throw by either quarterback early in this game. Unfortunately, his receiver dropped what should have been a touchdown at the back of the end zone:
Off to a slow start, Darnold was able to showcase an under-appreciated aspect of his game by scrambling for a first down to set up a touchdown that he scored himself on a more routine keeper:
One concern from watching Falk is that he sometimes fails to sense things in his peripheral vision. He led his receivers into big hits a few times and, on this third down drop, stares down his target, leading one to wonder if he ever saw the defensive back coming across the middle into the passing lane:
Darnold's struggles continued and he threw his first interception on a throw to the outside. With his receiver breaking towards the sideline, the throw wasn't wide enough, enabling the defender to jump the route. It was also a little late, perhaps due to his long delivery, although maybe it gets there on time if he steps into the throw more instead of relying solely on his arm:
Falk is willing to stand tall in the pocket but will at times bail out of throws when a hit is coming. However, he'll also fade away on some throws by design, to create an angle to get the throw off. He did that on his first touchdown pass of the day.
Falk was playing well, but made a big mistake near his own goal line. Maybe he's a little unlucky with the bounce, but this is the same issue as before because he doesn't appear to sense the defensive lineman jumping into the passing lane:
However, Darnold almost gave it right back with interest. This is obviously a pre-determined throw and perhaps you could question the receiver's effort or claim that there was interference here, but the ball placement and timing between Darnold and his receivers need to be better than this:
With USC forced to settle for a field goal, Washington State were able to tie the score and then got the ball back. Falk came up big in the clutch with this fourth down conversion with excellent timing and ball placement on a similar route to the one where Darnold was intercepted. He then "threw" a go-ahead 23-yard touchdown on a shovel pass to take the lead shortly afterwards:
With 10 minutes left, the Trojans trailed by a touchdown and Darnold's numbers - 10-for-22, 100 yards, one interception - were extremely disappointing. Much of this production came on a simple play that they ran several times which would see Darnold roll right and throw a quick out to his receiver, who would then try to pick up yards after the catch.
However, he came up big on the next drive. His signature play was this outstanding 4th-and-long conversion where he stepped up into the pocket, then was able to buy just enough time to get the throw off by shuffling to his left:
On the next play, Darnold connected on a long pass inside the five as the defense seemed to blow the coverage on a corner route. He finished that drive off with another keeper to tie the score. Seeing Darnold struggle all day but then come up with clutch plays down the stretch was reminiscent of Mitchell Trubisky's performance in last year's bowl game against Stanford.
Falk drove the Cougars downfield for the go-ahead field goal, but probably doesn't deserve much credit for that because he didn't throw a first down pass on the drive. Running back Jamal Morrow did most of the damage.
So, the game was set up for Darnold to drive the Trojans downfield and win - or tie the game and get even more chances to pad his stats in overtime. Fellow quarterback prospect Josh Rosen from UCLA had a similar game against Texas A&M earlier in the year where he played poorly earlier on but came up big and ended up improving his stock with his late-game heroics. However, Darnold saw the crossing route developing across the middle a beat late and lost the ball:
So Falk's Cougars hang on for the upset win, although either team could still end up in the mix for the BCS playoffs. Falk ended up with 340 yards and two touchdowns, although he did throw 51 passes. Darnold ended up with 15 completions on 29 attempts for 164 yards, but did also rush for two scores.
Falk is a player with traits that are sure to make him a sought-after draft prospect. His skill-set and intangibles suggest he'll be a coachable player that executes a system efficiently. And, unlike Hackenberg, who went higher than some expected on the basis of similar traits, Falk has been a lot more consistent at the collegiate level, even though he perhaps didn't ascend to the heights some expected in 2016. His superior film, coupled with these traits, could cause his stock to keep rising between now and April. If they can make a playoff run, who knows how high he could go?
As for Darnold, it's quite apparent that he was crowned as the elite prospect in this class too soon. There's many examples of players who were once considered near-consensus future number one picks that ended up going much later, including Geno Smith and Christian Hackenberg.
It's not difficult to see parallels between Darnold and Mark Sanchez, who was also considered a top-five worthy quarterback based on one season as a starter at USC that saw him put up big numbers in the Rose Bowl against Penn State. However, we should guard against writing Darnold off at this early stage.
His (comparative) struggles so far simply show that he's got some room to grow but that doesn't mean he can't still establish himself as the number one pick and also be a good franchise quarterback at the NFL level. That potential is still there.
Whether the Jets will be in the mix remains to be seen, but if they don't get the chance to draft Darnold - or they're not completely sold on his potential - Falk is one of several alternatives that might be an option at some point instead.
No doubt the team will be keeping a close eye on all of the top candidates and not just Darnold.