Are the top guarantees given to UDFAs a good indicator of future success?

We recently started our look at each of this year's undrafted rookie signings, of which the Jets had a bumper haul. We've decided to cover those players who got the most guaranteed money in their contract first of all, because presumably these players are the most likely to become future contributors.

However, is this always the case? While it makes logical sense that someone with a six-figure guarantee will at least end up on the practice squad so that this sum doesn't end up being dead money, have recent success stories typically been the ones to get the most money?

The top guarantees this year went to the likes of Eric Watts, Braiden McGregor and Jarius Monroe, so we can probably expect those three and a few of the other top-earning UDFAs to land on the practice squad at least. But is that usually the case?

Looking back to last year, the top guarantees went to Jason Brownlee ($246K) who spent the entire year on the active roster, although he was a healthy scratch much of the time. Xavier Gipson also spent the whole year on the active roster having received one of the highest guarantees ($165K).

The second-highest reported guarantee went to cornerback Kahlef Hailassie, but that deal fell through for whatever reasons. He did end up seeing regular season action elsewhere, though.

On the other hand, safeties Trey Dean and Muddy Waters both got six figure guarantees but neither played in 2023 and both are now gone. Waters didn't even make the practice squad.

In 2022, Bam Knight was tied for the biggest guarantee ($130K) and did eventually see action on the active roster but he started off on the practice squad. DQ Thomas also had the same guarantees but he was released from the practice squad before the season even got underway.

Tony Adams was the big success story from this class and he did have one of the bigger guarantees ($110K). However, Irvin Charles also ended up on the roster via the practice squad despite only having $5K in guarantees.

2021's highest guarantees went to Kenny Yeboah ($200K) and Isaiah Dunn ($185K), neither of whom made the roster, although Yeboah has stuck around and been elevated a few times despite mostly being on the practice squad. Dunn probably would have been on the practice squad but was claimed off waivers when the Jets released him in final cuts.

2020 is interesting to look back to because that class included Bryce Huff, who of course developed into a key contributor and recently signed a contract worth over $50m with the Eagles. Huff did indeed have the biggest guarantee for that year's class ($90K).

However, the next highest guarantee went to offensive lineman Jared Hilbers who didn't even make the practice squad. Two other players, Javelin Guidry and Lamar Jackson, who did ultimately find their way onto the roster (albeit one of the worst rosters in the NFL) only had the 5th and 6th highest guarantees out of a small class.

Finally, going back to 2018, Robby Anderson also had a low guarantee (just $10K) before a dominant camp and preseason landed him a role as a key contributor.

Ultimately, there are enough examples of players with high guarantees not getting close to contributing and players with low guarantees being a success story that you can't rule anything out, even if it does give some indication into the team's thinking.

Oh well. We'll be breaking down all of them, regardless.